A Framework of Hybrid System Dynamics and Agent Based Model With Cooperative Game Theory for Sustainable Coffee Supply Chain
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37385/jaets.v6i2.7007Keywords:
Agent-Based Model, Coffee Supply Chain, Cooperative Game Theory, Hybrid Simulation, System DynamicsAbstract
The global coffee supply chain is a complex network involving diverse stakeholders such as farmers, traders, exporters, and consumers, each with unique incentives and constraints. This study introduces a conceptual framework that integrates System Dynamics (SD), Agent-Based Modelling (ABM), and Cooperative Game Theory (CGT) to address challenges in profit allocation, coalition stability, and sustainability. SD provides macro-level insights into global trends such as price fluctuations and production dynamics, while ABM models individual decision-making processes. CGT complements these methods by facilitating fair payoff distribution and stable coalition formation. The framework is structured into problem identification, model development and mapping, and interaction mode selection, offering a comprehensive approach to understanding material, information, and decision flows. Using illustrative scenarios, the study demonstrates the framework’s potential to analyses trade-offs and long-term impacts on supply chain stability. Its practical implications could support policymakers and industry leaders in designing fair profit-sharing mechanisms, promoting stable cooperation among stakeholders, and enhancing the overall sustainability of coffee and other agri-food supply chains. Thus, the framework highlights its applicability as a conceptual tool for supporting decision-making and sustainability in coffee supply chains and beyond.
Downloads
References
Aloui, A., Hamani, N., Derrouiche, R., & Delahoche, L. (2022). Assessing the benefits of horizontal collaboration using an integrated planning model for two-echelon energy efficiency-oriented logistics networks design. International Journal of Systems Science: Operations and Logistics, 9(3), 302–323. https://doi.org/10.1080/23302674.2021.1887397
Anand, S., Barua, M. K., Katiyar, R., & Meet, R. K. (2024). Minimizing waste, maximizing sustainability: Analyzing collaborative practices implementation barriers in the agri-fresh produce industry. Sustainable Futures, 8(October), 100398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100398
Anh, N. H., & Bokelmann, W. (2019). Determinants of smallholders’ market preferences: The case of sustainable certified coffee farmers in Vietnam. Sustainability (Switzerland), 11(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11102897
Astuti, R., & Hidayati, L. (2023). How might blockchain technology be used in the food supply chain? A systematic literature review. Cogent Business & Management, 10(2), 2246739. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2023.2246739
Bargavi, R., & Mathivathanan, D. (2024). Digital Twins an Enabler of Digitalization in Supply Chain. In Environmental Footprints and Eco-Design of Products and Processes: Vol. Part F1427 (pp. 169–183). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-4894-9_11
Barrad, S., Valverde, R., & Gagnon, S. (2018). The application of system dynamics for a sustainable procurement operation. In Understanding Complex Systems (pp. 179–196). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94322-0_7
Bashiri, M., Tjahjono, B., Lazell, J., Ferreira, J., & Perdana, T. (2021). The dynamics of sustainability risks in the global coffee supply chain: A case of Indonesia–UK. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(2), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020589
Béal, S., Rémila, E., & Solal, P. (2012). Compensations in the Shapley value and the compensation solutions for graph games. International Journal of Game Theory, 41(1), 157–178. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00182-011-0277-7
Borrella, I., Mataix, C., & Carrasco-Gallego, R. (2015). Smallholder Farmers in the Speciality Coffee Industry: Opportunities, Constraints and the Businesses that are Making it Possible. IDS Bulletin, 46(3), 29–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-5436.12142
Bracken, P., Burgess, P. J., & Girkin, N. T. (2023). Opportunities for enhancing the climate resilience of coffee production through improved crop, soil and water management. Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems, 47(8), 1125–1157. https://doi.org/10.1080/21683565.2023.2225438
Brown, C., Bakam, I., Smith, P., & Matthews, R. (2016). An agent-based modelling approach to evaluate factors influencing bioenergy crop adoption in north-east Scotland. GCB Bioenergy, 8(1), 226–244. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12261
Callegari, B., & Feder, C. (2024). Integrating System Dynamics and Agent-Based Models for Enhanced Analysis in Sustainable Development. CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 3735, 133–147. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85200147504&partnerID=40&md5=9175ceb318c683e918f5f747659a1135
Catola, M., & Leoni, S. (2023). Pollution Abatement and Lobbying in a Cournot Game: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach. Computational Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-023-10463-7
Churkin, A., Bialek, J., Pozo, D., Sauma, E., & Korgin, N. (2021). Review of Cooperative Game Theory applications in power system expansion planning. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111056
Collins, A. J. (2021). Comparing Agent-Based Modeling to Cooperative Game Theory and Human Behavior. Springer Proceedings in Complexity, 73–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83418-0_5
de Marchi, S., & Page, S. E. (2008). Agent-Based Modeling. In The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.003.0004
Demartini, M., Tonelli, F., & Bertani, F. (2018). Approaching Industrial Symbiosis Through Agent-Based Modeling and System Dynamics. Studies in Computational Intelligence, 762, 171–185. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73751-5_13
Doan, T.-T. T., & Bui, T. N. (2020). How does supply chain management affect financial performance? Evidence from coffee sector. Uncertain Supply Chain Management, 8(4), 839–844. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.uscm.2020.6.002
Dobos, I., & Pintér, M. (2013). Cooperation in an HMMS-type supply chain: A management application of cooperative game theory. Periodica Polytechnica Social and Management Sciences, 21(1), 45–52. https://doi.org/10.3311/PPso.2156
Faradillah, Y., Saany, S. I. A., & El-Ebiary, Y. A. B. (2019). E-Marketing and Challenges among Indonesian Coffee Farmers. 2019 International Conference of Computer Science and Information Technology (ICoSNIKOM), 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICoSNIKOM48755.2019.9111638
Fathallahi, F., Ponnambalam, K., Huang, Y., & Karray, F. (2020). Agent-Based Modeling to Simulate Real-World Prices: A Strawberry Market Study. Conference Proceedings - IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2020-Octob, 3606–3611. https://doi.org/10.1109/SMC42975.2020.9283260
Freese, F., & Ludwig, A. (2021). How the Dimensions of Supply Chain are Reflected by Digital Twins: A State-of-the-Art Survey. Lecture Notes in Information Systems and Organisation, 48 LNISO, 325–341. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86800-0_23
Fu, W. Q. (2014). Profit distribution strategy model in the three-level supply chain based on the cooperative game theory. Information Technology Journal, 13(6), 1070–1077. https://doi.org/10.3923/itj.2014.1070.1077
Guardiola, L. A., Meca, A., & Puerto, J. (2023). Allocating the surplus induced by cooperation in distribution chains with multiple suppliers and retailers. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmateco.2023.102889
Gutierrez, E., Llorca, N., Mosquera, M., & Sanchez-Soriano, J. (2019). On horizontal cooperation in linear production processes with a supplier that controls a limited resource. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 90(2), 169–196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00186-019-00667-9
Hacardiaux, T., Defryn, C., Tancrez, J. S., & Verdonck, L. (2022). Balancing partner preferences for logistics costs and carbon footprint in a horizontal cooperation. OR Spectrum, 44(1), 121–153. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00291-021-00651-y
Haldar, T., & Damodaran, A. (2022). Identifying market power of retailers and processors: Evidence from coffee supply chain in India. IIMB Management Review, 34(3), 286–296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2022.09.002
Hernandez-Aguilera, J. N., Gómez, M. I., Rodewald, A. D., Rueda, X., Anunu, C., Bennett, R., & van Es, H. M. (2018). Quality as a Driver of Sustainable Agricultural Value Chains: The Case of the Relationship Coffee Model. Business Strategy and the Environment, 27(2), 179–198. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.2009
Huber, R., Bakker, M., Balmann, A., Berger, T., Bithell, M., Brown, C., Grêt-Regamey, A., Xiong, H., Le, Q. B., Mack, G., Meyfroidt, P., Millington, J., Müller, B., Polhill, J. G., Sun, Z., Seidl, R., Troost, C., & Finger, R. (2018). Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models. Agricultural Systems, 167, 143–160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.09.007
Jagutis, M., Russell, S., & Collier, R. (2023). Flexible simulation of traffic with microservices, agents & REST. International Journal of Parallel, Emergent and Distributed Systems. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/17445760.2023.2242183
Jamali, R., & Lazarova-Molnar, S. (2022). The Relationship Between Agent-based Simulation and Game Theory in the Case of Parallel Trade. Proceedings - 2022 IEEE International Conference on Agents, ICA 2022, 36–41. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICA55837.2022.00013
Jang, I. J., Minnick, K., & Nemani, A. (2024). Safeguarding proprietary information in the supply chain and relationship-specific investments. Financial Review, 59(4), 923–952. https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12391
Janssen, M. A., Smith-Heisters, S., Aggarwal, R., & Schoon, M. L. (2019). ‘Tragedy of the commons’ as conventional wisdom in sustainability education. Environmental Education Research, 25(11), 1587–1604. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504622.2019.1632266
Kadigi, R. M. J., Robinson, E., Szabo, S., Kangile, J., Mgeni, C. P., De Maria, M., Tsusaka, T., & Nhau, B. (2022). Revisiting the Solow-Swan model of income convergence in the context of coffee producing and re-exporting countries in the world. Sustainable Futures, 4(January), 100082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2022.100082
Khorshidi, M. S., Nikoo, M. R., Al-Rawas, G., Bahrami, N., Al-Wardy, M., Talebbeydokhti, N., & Gandomi, A. H. (2024). Integrating agent-based modeling and game theory for optimal water resource allocation within complex hierarchical systems. Journal of Cleaner Production, 482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.144164
Kremmydas, D., Athanasiadis, I. N., & Rozakis, S. (2018). A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation. Agricultural Systems, 164, 95–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.03.010
Kuwornu, J. K. M., Khaipetch, J., Gunawan, E., Bannor, R. K., & Ho, T. D. N. (2023). The adoption of sustainable supply chain management practices on performance and quality assurance of food companies. Sustainable Futures, 5(November 2022), 100103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2022.100103
Li, X., Wang, H., Xia, C., & Perc, M. (2019). Effects of Reciprocal Rewarding on the Evolution of Cooperation in Voluntary Social Dilemmas. Frontiers in Physics, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2019.00125
Lima, U. M., & Lee, K. (2023). Governance and Asymmetry in Global Value Chains of the Coffee Industry: Possibility for Catch-Up by Emerging Economies. Seoul Journal of Economics, 36(1), 79–111. https://doi.org/10.22904/sje.2023.36.1.003
Long, Q., & Zhang, W. (2014). An integrated framework for agent based inventory-production-transportation modeling and distributed simulation of supply chains. Information Sciences, 277, 567–581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2014.02.147
Lu, Y., Sun, Z., Xu, J., & Yao, G. (2024). Unveiling Agricultural Shifts through Stakeholder Interactions and Strategic Dynamics in Green Rice Production. Agriculture (Switzerland), 14(5). https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14050724
Lyu, H., & Zhang, Z. J. (2017). Incentives for knowledge sharing: impact of organisational culture and information technology. Enterprise Information Systems, 11(9), 1416–1435. https://doi.org/10.1080/17517575.2016.1273393
Mancini, M. C. (2013). Geographical Indications in Latin America Value Chains: A “branding from below” strategy or a mechanism excluding the poorest? Journal of Rural Studies, 32, 295–306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2013.07.008
Mann, S. (2021). Synthesizing knowledge about structural change in agriculture: The integration of disciplines and aggregation levels. Agriculture (Switzerland), 11(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11070601
Marvuglia, A., Rege, S., Navarrete Gutiérrez, T., Vanni, L., Stilmant, D., & Benetto, E. (2017). A return on experience from the application of agent-based simulations coupled with life cycle assessment to model agricultural processes. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142, 1539–1551. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.150
McDonald, G. W., & Osgood, N. D. (2023). Agent-Based Modeling and Its Trade-Offs: An Introduction and Examples. In Fields Institute Communications (Vol. 88, pp. 209–242). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-40805-2_9
Moser, D., Riener, A., Zia, K., & Ferscha, A. (2011). Comparing parallel simulation of social agents using Cilk and OpenCL. Proceedings - IEEE International Symposium on Distributed Simulation and Real-Time Applications, DS-RT, 88–97. https://doi.org/10.1109/DS-RT.2011.12
Mutingi, M. (2014). System dynamics of information technology adoption in a complex environment. International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 17(1), 78–97. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJISE.2014.060823
Nagarajan, M., & Soši?, G. (2008). Game-theoretic analysis of cooperation among supply chain agents: Review and extensions. European Journal of Operational Research, 187(3), 719–745. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.05.045
Nasirzadeh, F., Khanzadi, M., & Mir, M. (2018). A hybrid simulation framework for modelling construction projects using agent-based modelling and system dynamics: an application to model construction workers’ safety behavior. International Journal of Construction Management, 18(2), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2017.1285485
Ngure, G. M., & Watanabe, K. N. (2024). Coffee sustainability: leveraging collaborative breeding for variety improvement. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 8(July), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1431849
Nguyen, L. K. N., Howick, S., & Megiddo, I. (2022). Interfaces Between SD and ABM Modules in a Hybrid Model. Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference, 2022-Decem, 1188–1198. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015353
Nguyen, L. K. N., Howick, S., & Megiddo, I. (2024). A framework for conceptualising hybrid system dynamics and agent-based simulation models. European Journal of Operational Research, 315(3), 1153–1166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2023.10.039
Niamir, L., Kiesewetter, G., Wagner, F., Schöpp, W., Filatova, T., Voinov, A., & Bressers, H. (2020). Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of individual behavioral changes on carbon emissions. Climatic Change, 158(2), 141–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02566-8
Ospina, A. M., & Quijano, N. (2016). Distributed control of small-scale power systems using noncooperative games. International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 82, 535–544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2016.03.065
Perez-Blanco, C. D., Hrast-Essenfelder, A., & Perry, C. (2020). Irrigation technology and water conservation: A review of the theory and evidence. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 14(2), 216–239. https://doi.org/10.1093/REEP/REAA004
Purnomo, B. H., Suryadharma, B., & Al-hakim, R. G. (2021). Risk mitigation analysis in a supply chain of coffee using House of Risk method. Industri: Jurnal Teknologi dan Manajemen Agroindustri, 10(2), 111–124. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.industri.2021.010.02.3
Quiñones-Ruiz, X. F. (2021). Social brokerage: Encounters between Colombian coffee producers and Austrian Buyers – A research-based relational pathway. Geoforum, 123, 107–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2021.04.024
Raczynski, S. (2010). Discrete event approach to the classical system dynamics. Proceedings of the 2009 Huntsville Simulation Conference, HSC 2009, 254–258. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84875636790&partnerID=40&md5=b20705a436450f2cf85bf30494a09786
Radosavljevic, S., Sanga, U., & Schlüter, M. (2024). Navigating simplicity and complexity of social-ecological systems through a dialogue between dynamical systems and agent-based models. Ecological Modelling, 495(July), 110788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110788
Sajadieh, M. S., & Danaei, M. (2022). Robust optimization approach for pricing and shelf space decisions with uncertain demand. Scientia Iranica, 29(1 E), 303–319. https://doi.org/10.24200/sci.2020.52803.3145
Santoso, I., Sholiliah, A., Rucitra, A. L., Maulidina, N., & Choirun, A. (2025). Sustainable coffee supply chain risk mitigation analysis using the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. BIO Web of Conferences, 165, 02002. https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202516502002
Samayamantri, S., & Vaddy, R. K. (2025). Sustainable Development Through Digital Twin Technology: Optimizing the Supply Chain. Communications in Computer and Information Science, 2196 CCIS, 92–101. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-71729-1_9
Sawada, Y., Kasahara, R., Aoyagi, K., Shoji, M., & Ueyama, M. (2013). Modes of collective action in village economies: Evidence from natural and artefactual field experiments in a developing country. Asian Development Review, 30(1), 31–51. https://doi.org/10.1162/ADEV_a_00002
Sayuti, M., & Raza, H. (2018). Analysis the competitive advantage of arabica gayo coffee organic in Indonesia. Indian Journal of Public Health Research and Development, 9(12), 1880–1884. https://doi.org/10.5958/0976-5506.2018.02264.7
Sembiring, N., Napitupulu, H. L., Ariqsyah, M. D., & Simanjuntak, M. R. (2023). Hybrid simulation of supply chain?: A review. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2485(1). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0105372
Senger, F., & Hartwig, J. (2016). Combination of an evolutionary agent-based model of transitions in shipping technologies with a system dynamics expectations formulation. Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference, 0, 3700–3701. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822407
Shayanmehr, S., Asumadu-Sarkodie, S., Rastegari Henneberry, S., Sabouhi Sabouni, M., Mohammadi, H., Radmehr, R., Ofori, E. K., & Shahnoushi Foroushani, N. (2025). Market mechanisms and their role in sustainable food security: Adapting to climate change in arid regions. Sustainable Futures, 9(December 2024), 100412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100412
Sun, Z., Lorscheid, I., Millington, J. D., Lauf, S., Magliocca, N. R., Groeneveld, J., Balbi, S., Nolzen, H., Müller, B., Schulze, J., & Buchmann, C. M. (2016). Simple or complicated agent-based models? A complicated issue. Environmental Modelling and Software, 86, 56–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.006
Sundaresan, S., & Zhang, Z. J. (2016). Knowledge sharing and learning in organizations: Role of incentives and information systems. Journal of Industrial Integration and Management, 1(3). https://doi.org/10.1142/S2424862216500056
Suryanendra, A., & Siuyani, E. (2021). The analysis of coffee productivity and production improvement strategies in Indonesia: A system thinking approach. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2329. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0042157
Swinerd, C., & McNaught, K. R. (2015). Comparing a simulation model with various analytic models of the international diffusion of consumer technology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 100, 330–343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.08.003
Thun, J. H. (2005). The potential of Cooperative Game Theory for Supply Chain Management. In Research Methodologies in Supply Chain Management: In Collaboration with Magnus Westhaus (pp. 477–491). https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1636-1_31
Utrilla-Catalan, R., Rodríguez-Rivero, R., Narvaez, V., Díaz-Barcos, V., Blanco, M., & Galeano, J. (2022). Growing Inequality in the Coffee Global Value Chain: A Complex Network Assessment. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020672
Weber, H., & Wiek, A. (2021). Cooperating With “Open Cards”—The Role of Small Intermediary Businesses in Realizing Sustainable International Coffee Supply. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.663716
Wood, S., Leoni, S., & Ladley, D. (2023). Comparisons of the effects of individual and collective performance-related pay on performance: A review. Human Resource Management Review, 33(4). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2023.100982
Xu, M., & Wang, J. (2020). Pricing and coordination decision of supply chain based on CVaR under fuzzy demand. Jisuanji Jicheng Zhizao Xitong/Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems, CIMS, 26(8), 2266–2277. https://doi.org/10.13196/j.cims.2020.08.025
Yu, J. S., & Bagheri, N. (2020). Agent-Based Modeling. In Systems Medicine: Integrative, Qualitative and Computational Approaches: Volume 1-3 (Vols. 1–3, pp. 56–67). https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-801238-3.11509-0
Yuan, Y., Viet, N., & Behdani, B. (2019). The impact of information sharing on the performance of horizontal logistics collaboration: A simulation study in an agri-food supply chain. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 52(13), 2722–2727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.11.619
Zhang, M., Zhang, X., Qu, C., Wang, G., & Lu, X. (2022). The combination of social reward and punishment is conducive to the cooperation and heterogeneity of social relations. Chaos, 32(10). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0102483
Zhang, X., Cui, W., & Li, J. (2024). A Tripartite Cooperation Game Based Study of Water Resources Management Agencies and Clients. Environmental Engineering and Management Journal, 23(4), 797–805. https://doi.org/10.30638/eemj.2024.062
Zhao, W., Mao, Z., & Tao, X. (2020). Application of fractal dimension of fractional Brownian motion to supply chain financing and operational comprehensive decision-making. Fractals, 28(8). https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218348X20400198.
CITEDNESS IN SCOPUS
CITEDNESS IN WOS
